Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, Small Business Minister Bruce Billson and newly elected Speaker Tony Smith are among senior government MPs who could have lost their seats had an election been held on Saturday.

As many as 36 seats held by Liberal or National Party MPs would have fallen on the back of a uniform 7.5 per cent swing, according to the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll.

The 36 seats, more than half of which are in New South Wales and Queensland, represent 15 more than the 21 Labor would need to form government.

Government whip Andrew Nikolic, Ken Wyatt, the first Indigenous MP in the House of Representatives, and Fiona Scott, who claimed the western Sydney seat of Lindsay at the 2013 poll would all lose their seats, assuming an unlikely uniform swing.

The supporters of a cross-party bill on marriage equality – Queensland MPs Warren Entsch, Teresa Gambaro and Wyatt Roy – would also have lost their seats.

According to the stated second preferences of respondents - rather than the allocation of second preferences as they flowed in September 2013 - the situation for Coalition MPs is even worse. On this measure, the government has cornered just 44 per cent support to Labor's 56 - a 12-point gap - representing a 9.5 per cent swing that would wipe out as many as 44 seats.

The Coalition holds 90 seats in the House of Representatives.

Education Minister Christopher Pyne is also considered vulnerable in his seat of Sturt because of a strong anti-Liberal sentiment in South Australia.

The Fairfax-Ipsos poll follows a series of crises for the government in the past month, including the resignation of Bronwyn Bishop from the speakership, a divisive debate over same-sex marriage policy and revelations the head of the royal commission into union corruption, Dyson Heydon, was to speak at a Liberal Party fundraiser.

On Monday, Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg stressed the Coalition had a history of staging political comebacks, citing John Howard's 2001 and 2004 victories.

"What you're saying to me is 'Is this poll going to mean we're going to lose the next election?' and I'm saying to you it's not," Mr Frydenberg told the ABC.

"The election is more than a year away. We've been behind in the polls before and we've come back and won elections."

But he conceded the government needed to improve its performance.

Ms Gambaro said the Fairfax-Ipsos poll should serve as a wake-up call to the government to get better.

"They are a bit worrying, there's no question about that. I think we need to do a lot more to improve things in the future," she said.

Coalition MPs who could have lost their seats based on uniform 7.5 per cent swing

• Nickolas Varvaris
• Luke Howarth
• Peter Hendy
• Karen McNamara
• Michelle Landry
• Craig Laundy
• Rick Wilson
• Eric Hutchinson
• Nathasha Griggs
• David Coleman
• Matt Williams
• Kevin Hogan
• Brett Whiteley
• Ann Sudmalis
• Fiona Scott
• Lucy Wicks
• Michael Sukkar
• Ross Vasta
• Sarah Henderson
• Andrew Nikolic
• Jason Wood
• Teresa Gambaro
• Bert van Manen
• Louise Markus
• Ken Wyatt
• Bruce Billson
• Warren Entsch 
• Ewen Jones
• Ken O'Dowd
• Steve Irons
• Peter Dutton
• Wyatt Roy
• Andrew Southcott 
• Tony Smith
• Luke Simpkins
• George Christensen 

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