At its peak, American Idol drew an average audience of 36 million. A decade later, its ratings were down by 25 million. To some, this was proof of reality TV's decline.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
Now consider this. Almost 7.4 million Australians saw at least five minutes of the May 1 episodes of House Rules, The Voice or MasterChef (the first time they aired together). Lower that threshold to one minute, and these shows reached almost 10 million, including regional viewers.
Some flipped between channels. Millions viewed a full episode, live. Others recorded, then watched later.
"Reality is not about to go anywhere," says Mediaweek editor James Manning. "Just look at the number of hours the networks devote to it."
Nine's The Voice is the front runner, with a national season average of almost 1.86 million viewers. Ten's MasterChef is beating Seven's House Rules in the capital cities, though the renovation show is ahead once regional audiences are added (MasterChef: 1.25 million; House Rules: 1.27 million).
Most Australians watch some free-to-air TV, most days. Ratings are tailored to advertisers, which means average audiences get reported – not the total number of viewers. While fair, this doesn't reflect broadcasters' reach.
Granted, few reality programs score the colossal numbers of MasterChef or Big Brother in their heyday. This is where misconceptions arise, says media analyst Steve Allen, managing director of Fusion Strategy.
"Last year, networks put even more reality in prime time. It would follow that if you're throwing more reality at viewers, that's going to spread the audiences thinner. It doesn't mean the audience is declining."
The 2015 boom included two renovation shows in direct competition (Seven's House Rules versus Nine's Reno Rumble), and cooking (Seven's Restaurant Revolution versus Nine's The Hotplate). It was a disaster, which prompted a truce: no more copycat spoiling.
So far, it's working. The choice of renovation, singing or cooking has been rewarded with healthy ratings. Of course, the truce was unofficial. If a network sniffs a commercial advantage, they'll take it.
This battle isn't over. Manning says The Voice's ratings might dip in the middle of the season – between "the magic of the spinning chairs" in the blind auditions, and the finals. House Rules and MasterChef tend to build as their conclusion nears.
One reason The Voice is leading, he believes, is because it only asks two nights a week of viewers. House Rules, in contrast, airs four nights and MasterChef, five. But raw ratings aren't everything.
"MasterChef has got a whole lot more episodes. There might be more sponsorship money. It's probably more critical to Ten's bottom line."
He laughs, recalling how networks once axed programs attracting "only" a million viewers.
In 2016, audiences continue to splinter. Many viewers get their drama fix, ad-free, through streaming services. Reality shows that draw live crowds larger than 1 million, therefore, are in demand.
"These days, you'd be popping the champagne over that."
