Same-sex marriage would comfortably become law if parliamentarians were granted a free vote – without the need for a plebiscite – analysis by marriage equality advocates shows.
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But a stalemate looms if the Turnbull government's proposed plebiscite fails to pass the Senate, where it currently has the support of just 37 senators – two shy of the 39 needed.
The analysis found at least 84 lower house MPs and 41 senators in the new Parliament would vote in favour of marriage equality if a free vote were granted – enough to succeed in both chambers.
"Marriage equality enjoys clear majority support in both houses of Parliament," said long-time gay rights campaigner Rodney Croome. "If the Coalition allowed a free vote, marriage equality could pass tomorrow and the nation could move on."
The numbers have strengthened since the election and include such newly elected MPs as Tim Wilson, Trevor Evans and the Nick Xenophon Team's Rebekha Sharkie, as well as a slew of Labor recruits.
Mr Croome said the number of supportive lower house MPs could be as high as 87, including the Coalition's Jason Falinski, Jane Prentice and Melissa Price. "Either way, it's a strong majority," he said.
The vote appears tighter in the Senate, but marriage equality advocates counted 41 locked-on supporters, including all nine Greens and the three NXT senators. Thirty-nine votes are required for a majority.
Australian Marriage Equality chairman Alex Greenwich concurred with those numbers but warned a "stalemate" could occur if the plebiscite was blocked in the Senate and the Coalition then refused to grant a free vote.
He called on advocates from all sides of politics to negotiate a "multi-partisan pathway" to achieving marriage equality, rather than engaging in "political stunts at 20 paces".
"This is an issue where a lack of multi-partisan co-operation has been the thing standing in its way for far too long, and it's time that came to an end," Mr Greenwich said.
The analysis comes as Labor, the Greens and the NXT beef up their opposition to the Turnbull government's proposed plebiscite, which now appears to be slated for February 2017.
No party has committed to voting against the proposal in the Senate, but between them those three parties have enough votes (38) to block government bills.
Greens MP Adam Bandt on Monday hinted his party might hold the line. "I think there's a real chance that the plebiscite legislation might not pass the Parliament," he told Sky News.
It is uncertain what would happen in that event. Some Coalition MPs have suggested there would be no action taken on same-sex marriage for the next three years.
A minimum of eight Coalition MPs would need to cross the floor if the Turnbull government does not relent and allow a free vote, according to Australian Marriage Equality's analysis. So far there is no indication that will happen.
Given the parliamentary support for same-sex marriage, Mr Croome said, conservatives had thrown their support behind a plebiscite because a public "no" vote was now the only plausible way it could be stopped.
"The far right knows it will definitely lose a vote in Parliament, whereas it still hopes it might win a plebiscite," Mr Croome said. "It's ironic we're headed for a plebiscite at exactly that moment in time when Parliament is finally on board with marriage equality."
