Despite a tumultuous few months that included a spectacular reversal of his push to ban greyhound racing, Mike Baird has bounced back to re-establish a solid lead over Labor midway through his first full term as Premier.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
An exclusive Fairfax/ReachTEL poll reveals the Coalition leading Labor 53 to 47 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, using preference flows from the 2015 election.
This is a three percentage point swing back to the Coalition from the 50-50 result recorded in the last Fairfax/ReachTEL poll conducted in August.
However, it is a one-point move away from Coalition's two-party preferred winning margin at the 2015 election of 54.3 to 45.68 per cent.
On a uniform swing, this would see the Baird government comfortably returned to power, albeit with a slightly reduced majority.
The Coalition's primary vote has improved from 39.4 in August to 40.6 per cent, while Labor's primary vote has fallen from 34.9 to 32.4 per cent.
The Greens are steady on 8 per cent, "others" have jumped from 9.6 per cent to 11.6 per cent and undecided voters from 8.1 per cent to 7.4 per cent.
The result comes just three weeks after the Nationals suffered a record 34 per cent primary vote swing in the Orange byelection.
The loss of the formerly safe seat to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party precipitated the resignation of deputy Premier and Nationals leader Troy Grant.
The poll of 1624 NSW residents, taken on Thursday night, also shows Mr Baird has clawed back the lead as better premier from Labor leader Luke Foley.
In a shock result, the August poll had Mr Foley narrowly leading Mr Baird by 51.3 per cent to 48.7 per cent.
But the latest poll has reversed that, with Mr Baird now leading Mr Foley as better premier, albeit by a razor-thin margin of 50.6 to 49.4 per cent.
Mr Baird's biggest challenge in recent months has been the controversy over the government's push to shut down the greyhound racing industry, which he and Mr Grant announced in July.
Following a concerted campaign from the industry and several media organisations, Mr Baird declared in October that he and the government had "got it wrong" and announced a spectacular reversal.
Far from punishing the government for backing down on its ban, close to a majority of voters say they support the decision, the poll shows.
About half – 49.3 per cent – of voters said they support the decision to reverse the ban, with 32 per cent opposing it and 18.7 per cent undecided.
Mr Baird also announced in October, with finance minister Dominic Perrottet, reforms to how homes and businesses are compulsorily acquired for infrastructure projects such as the $16.8 billion WestConnex motorway.
The decision followed months of criticism over the government's failure to act on recommendations from a report it commissioned about how to improve the system that was delivered in 2014 but kept secret for more than two years.
Days later Mr Baird and Treasurer Gladys Berejiklian announced the part privatisation of electricity company Ausgrid for $16.2 billion.
Shortly after the August poll, the Independent Commission Against Corruption handed down its report from Operation Spicer, the investigation into Liberal party rorting of political donations laws before the 2011 election.
But while the ICAC recommended the Director of Public Prosecutions consider larceny charges against former Liberal minister Chris Hartcher and found several former Liberal MPs had sought to evade donations laws, the sole corruption finding was against ex-Labor minister Joe Tripodi.
The automated telephone based poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
