Cory Bernardi is set to upend centre-right politics in Australia and announce on Tuesday that he is resigning from the Liberal Party to head his own conservative movement in a stunning move that will rock the Turnbull government as Parliament returns for the new political year.
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Fairfax Media has learnt that in recent days Senator Bernardi informed his staff of his decision to defect from the party he has represented in the Senate for a decade. He will join the crossbench as an independent conservative senator for South Australia, fearing that populist parties will continue to rise if right-wing voters aren't given a viable alternative.
It's understood Senator Bernardi will phone Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in the morning, before delivering his resignation to the Senate after midday.
His resignation will emulate Don Chipp's in 1977, when the former Liberal minister sent shockwaves through the Coalition by quitting the party and founding the Australian Democrats. There are now fears other MPs could follow Senator Bernardi out the door, along with Liberal Party donors and voters. The outspoken conservative Nationals MP George Christensen has previously said he would use the summer break to also consider his future but has so far ruled out a switch.
Senator Bernardi has links to lucrative political donors, including Australia's richest woman Gina Rinehart, who has previously contributed to the Coalition.
He was re-elected in last year's double dissolution election and was second on the South Australian Liberal Party's ticket. In prior regular elections he held the prized number one position on the party's state ticket.
While Senator Bernardi will continue to support the government on crucial issues such as supply, he intends to use his new position to try to keep his old party true to its principles by advocating liberal economic policies such as lower taxes, smaller government and socially conservative values.
The move to the crossbench will send tremors through the Liberal Party, which is suffering in the polls under the leadership of Mr Turnbull and bleeding votes to independents and fringe parties, particularly One Nation.
His defection will be the first from the Coalition in the Senate since 2006 when the-then senator Julian McGauran crossed from the Nationals to the Liberals. However that did not change the composition of the former Howard government in the Senate as Mr McGauran remained inside the Coalition.
Senator Bernardi is believed to have come to the decision in recent days after having formed the conclusion that the Liberal Party has no plan to counter the rise of big government, or protectionist populism that has disrupted politics in the United States and Britain and threatens to do the same in Australia.
He also believes the Liberal Party's supporters have lost faith in the party's ability to reflect its founding values and vision because of the Coalition's willingness to adopt big-spending policies and advocate higher taxes.
He believes the disillusionment began with the party room's decision to replace former prime minister Tony Abbott with the moderate Mr Turnbull in September 2015.
Senator Bernardi, then an ally of Mr Abbott, warned against the change, saying it would complete the perception that the Liberal Party was no different from the Labor Party.
Senator Bernardi has long been branded one of Australia's most vocal politicians, having led the charge to reform section 18c of the Racial Discrimination Act and opposed carbon reduction schemes as well as the push to legalise gay marriage. He has written several books promoting conservatism and has established his own Conservative Leadership Foundation headquarters in his home city of Adelaide.
His willingness to defy his own side on key issues, including the 2014 deficit levy, the Coalition's policy not to oppose the former Labor government's plan to recognise local government in the constitution, company privacy laws and more have contributed to speculation for more than a year that he has been preparing to break away.
He has constantly denied the rumours and made his final decision only in recent weeks after wrestling with the idea over the summer.
But he had previously signalled that he felt emboldened by the election of US President Donald Trump, which he witnessed up close during his secondment to the United Nations late last year.
The final straw came after his return to Australia, when the Turnbull government appeared to be leaving open the prospect of adopting a form of a carbon trading scheme, against which he led the charge in 2009 when Mr Turnbull was the leader.
Senator Bernardi's move will cause dismay to former prime minister Tony Abbott, who denies positioning himself for a tilt at returning to the prime ministership.
Mr Abbott would be counting on Senator Bernardi's support in any attempted coup even though the senator has made it clear to colleagues that changing the leadership won't solve the structural problems within the party.
